Juliet Ezeh
Nigeria’s position in the United States crude oil market weakened sharply in January 2026, as American imports of Nigerian crude dropped by nearly half within a single month, raising fresh concerns over the country’s export competitiveness.
Latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis show that crude shipments from Nigeria to the U.S. fell by 47.16 per cent, declining from 3.149 million barrels in December 2025 to 1.664 million barrels in January 2026.
The sharp contraction translated into a significant loss of market share, with Nigeria’s contribution to total U.S. crude imports dropping from about 1.59 per cent to just 0.88 per cent within the same period.
In value terms, the decline was equally steep. Nigerian crude exports to the U.S. fell to approximately $116m in January, down from over $217m recorded in December, reflecting weaker trade flows despite sustained global demand.
The downturn comes even as Nigeria recorded a modest increase in oil production. Data from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited indicates that output rose to 1.64 million barrels per day in January, up from 1.55 million barrels per day in December.
The contrast between rising production and falling exports to a key market highlights a growing disconnect between Nigeria’s supply capacity and its ability to secure stable international demand.
Analysts point to intensifying competition within Africa as a key factor. Angola significantly expanded its exports to the U.S. during the period, while Ghana entered the market with new shipments, further eroding Nigeria’s share.
The shift suggests that buyers are increasingly diversifying supply sources, placing additional pressure on Nigeria to remain competitive in pricing, logistics, and trade relations.
Beyond crude oil, Nigeria’s overall export profile to the United States also weakened. Total U.S. imports from Nigeria dropped to $183m in January, down from $297m in December, underscoring the country’s continued reliance on oil as its primary export commodity.
Meanwhile, the United States recorded a growing trade surplus with Nigeria, driven by a sharp increase in American exports to the country during the same period.
Experts say the trend exposes structural weaknesses in Nigeria’s trade strategy, particularly its heavy dependence on crude oil and limited diversification into non-oil exports.
Recent policy shifts under Donald Trump, including tariff adjustments and stricter trade measures, have also contributed to uncertainty in trade flows, although crude oil remains largely exempt from direct tariff impacts.
Economist Muda Yusuf, however, downplayed the immediate economic impact, noting that Nigeria’s trade exposure to the U.S. remains relatively limited.
Still, he warned that broader constraints, particularly visa restrictions and limited business mobility, could pose longer-term challenges to trade and investment relations.
The latest figures reinforce concerns that Nigeria may be gradually losing its foothold in key export markets, even as global energy competition intensifies.
