By Kehinde Ibrahim, Lagos
NIGERIA’S expenditure on food imports recorded a modest decline in 2025, offering a glimpse of progress in the country’s long-standing quest to reduce reliance on foreign food supplies.
However, beneath the encouraging headline figures lies a more complex reality one that highlights the persistent structural challenges facing Africa’s largest economy and underscores the difficult path toward achieving genuine food security.
According to the latest Quarterly Statistical Bulletin released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the country spent $2.34 billion on food imports in 2025, representing a 7.37 per cent decline from the $2.53 billion recorded in 2024.
While the reduction signals some improvement in managing foreign exchange demand associated with food purchases, analysts caution that the figures should not be interpreted as evidence that Nigeria has significantly reduced its dependence on imported food products.
The decline in food import spending occurred during a year marked by major changes in the foreign exchange market, economic reforms, and persistent inflationary pressures that continued to affect households and businesses across the country.
Perhaps more striking than the reduction in the food import bill itself is the sharp drop in food imports’ share of overall foreign exchange utilisation. CBN data show that food imports accounted for just 4.97 per cent of total foreign exchange utilisation in 2025, compared with 9.49 per cent in 2024.
This shift was largely driven by a dramatic increase in overall foreign exchange utilisation, which surged from $26.65 billion in 2024 to $47.17 billion in 2025. The increase of more than $20.5 billion represents a 77 per cent rise in total foreign exchange demand, significantly diluting the proportion attributed to food imports.
The figures reveal an important trend in Nigeria’s external sector. Although spending on food imports fell by approximately $186.4 million year-on-year, total foreign exchange utilisation expanded at a much faster pace.
Consequently, food imports occupied a smaller portion of the country’s foreign exchange requirements, even though the nation continued to spend billions of dollars importing food products.
For policymakers, this development presents both positive and cautionary signals. On one hand, the lower food import bill may indicate gradual progress in domestic agricultural production, import substitution efforts, and improved local sourcing.
On the other hand, the continued expenditure of over $2 billion on food imports demonstrates that Nigeria remains heavily dependent on foreign markets to meet domestic food demand.
A closer examination of the monthly figures reveals fluctuations in food import spending throughout the year. Nigeria spent an average of $195.3 million monthly on food imports during 2025.
The year began with relatively high import expenditure of $213.11 million in January, followed by $195.68 million in February. Spending declined significantly in March and April, falling to $141.30 million and $141.13 million respectively—the lowest monthly levels recorded during the year.
However, import demand recovered in subsequent months. May recorded food import spending of $202.83 million, while June saw expenditures of $171.08 million. In July, imports climbed again to $229.70 million before easing slightly to $175.55 million in August.
September emerged as the peak month for food import spending, with foreign exchange outflows reaching $248.60 million. This was followed by $193.05 million in October and $185.45 million in November. The year concluded with another significant increase as December imports rose to $245.86 million.
The fluctuations suggest that food import demand remains influenced by seasonal factors, supply conditions, exchange rate movements, and domestic production cycles.
The higher expenditures recorded in September and December may reflect increased demand associated with inventory restocking, festive consumption patterns, and supply chain adjustments.
While the decline in dollar-denominated food imports appears encouraging, analysts argue that the broader economic context must be considered to fully understand the implications of the data.
One factor that may have contributed to lower food import spending is the impact of exchange rate reforms introduced by the Federal Government and the Central Bank. The depreciation of the naira has significantly increased the cost of imported goods, forcing many businesses and consumers to seek local alternatives.
Higher import costs often discourage excessive reliance on foreign products and can create incentives for domestic production. For food processors, retailers, and consumers, the rising cost of imported food items may have encouraged greater patronage of locally produced substitutes.
In addition, various government initiatives aimed at boosting agricultural productivity may have played a role. Over the years, authorities have invested in programmes designed to increase local cultivation of rice, maize, cassava, wheat substitutes, livestock products, and other agricultural commodities.
Although challenges remain, these efforts may be gradually yielding results in selected segments of the food value chain.
Nevertheless, experts caution against interpreting the reduction in imports as definitive evidence of improved food self-sufficiency. In many cases, reduced imports may simply reflect constrained purchasing power rather than enhanced domestic production capacity.
Nigeria continues to face significant agricultural challenges, including insecurity in farming communities, climate-related disruptions, inadequate infrastructure, limited access to financing, post-harvest losses, and rising production costs. These factors have continued to affect agricultural output and food availability across the country.
Moreover, food inflation remains one of the most pressing economic concerns facing Nigerian households. Rising food prices have eroded purchasing power and placed considerable pressure on family budgets.
Against this backdrop, lower food import volumes may partly reflect weaker consumer demand rather than a substantial increase in local food production.
Another dimension of the story emerges when the CBN data are compared with figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
While the CBN reported a decline in food imports measured in dollar terms, NBS trade data indicate that spending on food and beverage imports increased significantly when measured in naira terms. Reports based on NBS statistics show that food and beverage imports rose to approximately N7.65 trillion in 2025.
This apparent contradiction highlights the impact of exchange rate movements on trade statistics.
The depreciation of the naira means that even when fewer dollars are spent on imports, the corresponding value in local currency can rise substantially. In practical terms, Nigerians may be paying significantly more naira for imported food products despite a reduction in overall dollar expenditure.
For businesses dependent on imported raw materials and food products, this creates a difficult operating environment. Importers face higher costs, while consumers confront rising retail prices.
The divergence between dollar and naira-based figures also illustrates the broader economic adjustments occurring within Nigeria’s foreign exchange market. As exchange rates continue to evolve, businesses and policymakers increasingly rely on multiple indicators to assess trade performance and import dependence.
The continued expenditure of more than $2 billion on food imports raises important questions about Nigeria’s agricultural future.
With a population estimated at over 230 million people and growing rapidly, food demand continues to rise. Urbanisation, changing consumption patterns, and expanding industrial food processing activities are placing increasing pressure on domestic agricultural systems.
To sustainably reduce food imports, experts argue that Nigeria must address structural bottlenecks across the agricultural value chain. Increased investment in irrigation, mechanisation, storage facilities, transportation networks, and rural infrastructure will be essential.
Equally important is improving access to affordable credit for farmers and agribusinesses. Many producers continue to struggle with limited financing, restricting their ability to invest in modern technologies and expand production.
Security also remains a critical issue. Persistent conflicts, banditry, and farmer-herder clashes in several agricultural regions have disrupted farming activities and reduced output. Without addressing these challenges, efforts to boost local food production may achieve only limited success.
The private sector also has a crucial role to play. Investments in food processing, storage, logistics, and agricultural technology can help strengthen domestic supply chains and reduce post-harvest losses, which remain among the highest in the world.
Furthermore, developing competitive local industries capable of producing food products at scale will be essential for reducing import dependence over the long term.
The 2025 food import figures therefore present a mixed picture. The reduction in foreign exchange spending on food imports offers a positive signal that Nigeria may be making gradual progress in managing external demand pressures. The lower share of food imports in total foreign exchange utilisation also reflects changing dynamics within the broader economy.
Yet the country’s food import bill remains substantial, underscoring the reality that Nigeria continues to rely heavily on foreign supplies to meet domestic consumption needs.
As policymakers pursue economic diversification and food security objectives, the challenge will be translating temporary gains into lasting structural transformation.
Sustainable reductions in food imports will require more than exchange rate adjustments or short-term demand shifts. They will depend on significant improvements in agricultural productivity, investment, infrastructure, security, and value-chain development.
Until those foundations are firmly established, Nigeria’s aspiration for food self-sufficiency will remain a work in progress, and billions of dollars will continue to flow abroad each year to satisfy the nation’s growing appetite.
