By Kehinde Ibrahim, Lagos
THE Federal Government has outlined plans to secure an investment-grade sovereign credit rating by 2030, identifying improved revenue generation, sustainable debt management, economic diversification and stronger institutions as key requirements for achieving the goal.
The Minister of State for Budget and Economic Planning, Dr. Doris Uzoka-Anite, said Nigeria’s creditworthiness would depend on the strength of its economic fundamentals and the effective implementation of planned reforms, rather than the pursuit of a higher rating as an end in itself.
She spoke on Thursday at the sixth DataPro International Credit Rating Webinar, organised by DataPro Limited, where she linked the government’s ambition to the proposed National Development Plan (NDP) 2026–2030 and its objective of building a diversified, resilient and globally competitive economy capable of supporting Nigeria’s ambition of becoming a $1 trillion economy by 2030.
According to the minister, sovereign credit ratings are not merely assessments of a country’s ability to meet its financial obligations but also indicators of investor confidence in its institutions, policy environment and capacity to attract and sustain long-term capital.
She noted that stronger credit ratings could lower borrowing costs, improve access to international financing and influence investment decisions by both domestic and foreign investors.
Uzoka-Anite identified four major pillars underpinning Nigeria’s drive towards investment-grade status: fiscal health and domestic revenue mobilisation; debt sustainability and liability management; economic diversification, investment and productivity; and institutional strengthening and policy credibility.
On fiscal management, she said the government would need to expand its revenue base, improve tax compliance, digitalise revenue administration and reduce dependence on volatile oil earnings.
Under the proposed NDP 2026–2030, government revenue is projected to rise from 11.15 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 to 18.70 per cent by 2030.
She, however, acknowledged that the figures were projections whose achievement would depend on effective implementation of fiscal reforms and improved revenue collection.
The minister stressed that higher revenue mobilisation must be complemented by more efficient public expenditure, with greater emphasis on infrastructure, education, healthcare, human capital development and sectors capable of expanding the productive base of the economy.
The development plan projects capital expenditure to account for 57.43 per cent of total government spending by 2030, up from 36.03 per cent in 2025.
Achieving the target, she said, would require improved project preparation, transparent procurement procedures, effective monitoring and accountability for public spending.
On debt sustainability, Uzoka-Anite maintained that borrowing could support national development when channelled into productive investments but warned that weak revenue generation and rising debt-servicing obligations could undermine fiscal stability.
She cited an International Monetary Fund estimate that Nigeria’s consolidated fiscal deficit stood at 4.4 per cent of GDP in 2025, underscoring the need for sustained fiscal adjustment and stronger domestic revenue mobilisation.
Under the proposed development plan, public debt is projected to decline from 36.07 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 18.83 per cent by 2030.
Similarly, the Federal Government’s debt-service-to-revenue ratio is expected to fall from 62.93 per cent to 21.01 per cent over the same period.
Uzoka-Anite said the targets would depend on sustained economic growth, prudent borrowing and effective fiscal management.
She added that the government would continue to strengthen debt management, mitigate refinancing risks and deepen the domestic capital market through instruments such as Sukuk, green bonds and well-structured public-private partnerships.
The minister emphasised that government borrowing should expand the economy’s productive capacity rather than deepen existing fiscal pressures.
On economic diversification, she said Nigeria could not achieve a sustainable improvement in its sovereign credit profile while relying on a narrow economic base.
She identified agriculture, manufacturing, refining, solid minerals, digital services, energy and logistics as sectors with significant potential to expand production, exports, employment and foreign-exchange earnings.
According to her, the proposed NDP projects real GDP growth of 4.68 per cent in 2026, rising to 10.34 per cent by 2030, with average growth projected at 7.79 per cent over the five-year period.
Gross capital formation is also expected to reach 40 per cent of GDP by 2030, while the private sector is projected to account for approximately 72 per cent of cumulative investment under the plan.
Uzoka-Anite said achieving these targets would require improvements in infrastructure, energy supply, access to finance, regulatory efficiency and policy predictability.
She stressed that the Federal Government could not independently finance the country’s development needs, adding that its role should increasingly centre on creating an enabling environment for private investment, strengthening domestic value chains and supporting sectors that improve productivity.
“Ultimately, the strength of Nigeria’s sovereign credit profile will depend on the competitiveness and productivity of its real sector,” she said.
The minister also identified institutional quality and policy credibility as essential to strengthening Nigeria’s creditworthiness, noting that investors require confidence in government policies, regulatory frameworks, procurement processes and the reliability of economic statistics.
She said transparency, accountability, policy consistency and effective implementation would be critical to building and sustaining investor confidence.
According to her, the government is strengthening public financial management, procurement systems, project monitoring and evaluation, alongside efforts to improve the performance of public institutions.
She also highlighted the importance of reliable economic data, noting that the rebasing of Nigeria’s GDP and Consumer Price Index provided an opportunity to improve the measurement of economic activity and inflation.
Uzoka-Anite disclosed that the Federal Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning was institutionalising a National Macroeconomic Dashboard to track key indicators, including economic growth, inflation, revenue, fiscal balances, public debt, investment, external-sector performance and employment.
She added that the government had established a Macroeconomic Assumptions Standing Committee to periodically assess macroeconomic indicators and report to the Economic Management Team.
The initiatives, she said, were designed to strengthen evidence-based policymaking, improve coordination among economic authorities and facilitate timely policy adjustments in response to changing economic conditions.
Beyond macroeconomic indicators, the minister said the pursuit of stronger credit ratings must translate into tangible improvements in the living standards of Nigerians.
She argued that macroeconomic stability should be accompanied by positive outcomes at the household and community levels, including improved access to infrastructure, employment opportunities and essential services.
She identified the Renewed Hope Ward-Based Development Programme as a platform for connecting national development priorities with local needs across Nigeria’s 8,809 wards.
According to her, the programme could support infrastructure development, production, employment and access to basic services, provided it was backed by adequate financing, effective targeting, transparent implementation and measurable results.
Uzoka-Anite further noted that the success of the proposed NDP 2026–2030 would depend not only on its economic projections but also on the quality of its implementation.
She said effective alignment with annual budgets, the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework, sectoral strategies and subnational development plans would be necessary to ensure consistency between policy objectives and actual spending.
Regular reporting, credible data and transparent monitoring, she added, would enable investors and development partners to assess the country’s progress towards its economic targets.
The minister also highlighted the role of credit-rating agencies in providing independent assessments of Nigeria’s economic position and identifying reforms required to strengthen resilience.
She said Nigeria had significant advantages, including a large domestic market, abundant natural resources, a dynamic private sector and an expanding digital economy.
However, she maintained that the country must translate these advantages into sustainable investment, higher productivity and inclusive growth to improve its sovereign credit standing.
According to her, achieving stronger creditworthiness by 2030 would require consistent reforms, reliable economic data, effective policy implementation and sustained engagement with investors and development partners.
She added that Nigeria’s progress would ultimately be measured by the strength of its economic fundamentals and its ability to convert development plans into tangible results.
Also speaking at the webinar, the Founder of DataPro Limited, Abimbola Adeseyoju, described sovereign credit ratings as an important driver of investment, lower borrowing costs and sustainable economic transformation across Africa.
Adeseyoju, who spoke at the sixth edition of the DataPro International Credit Rating Webinar, themed “Credit Rating as a Catalyst for Economic Transformation,” said credit ratings had evolved beyond passive assessments of financial risk to become important gateways to international capital markets.
He explained that a country’s credit rating could influence the volume of investment it attracts and the cost of financing available to its government and businesses.
According to him, stronger credit ratings would help African economies access the long-term capital required to finance infrastructure, industrialisation and sustainable economic growth.
He said countries seeking to attain and sustain investment-grade ratings must prioritise fiscal discipline, structural reforms and stronger institutions.
Adeseyoju also called for deeper and more transparent capital markets, improved access to reliable economic data and enhanced risk disclosure to strengthen investor confidence.
He advocated the adoption of more objective and context-sensitive credit-rating methodologies that adequately reflect Africa’s economic realities, development challenges and growth potential.
The DataPro founder maintained that Africa’s transition towards investment-grade credit ratings was achievable through deliberate policy implementation, sound market infrastructure and stronger cross-border cooperation.
