By Timothy Yusuf, Amb. Raffy Bello
A former diplomat and traditional title holder, Amb. Raffy Bello, has described the economic reforms of President Bola Tinubu’s administration as a major attempt to restructure Nigeria’s economy, arguing that the ultimate test of the policies would be their ability to translate macroeconomic stability into jobs, industrial production and improved household incomes.
Bello, in an analysis titled “The Tinubu Reforms: From Macroeconomic Stability to Jobs, Industry and a New Nigerian Economy — A Defensible Account of What Has Changed Since 2023,” acknowledged that Nigerians continue to face high food prices, inflation, poverty, insecurity and a difficult cost-of-living environment.
He, however, argued that those challenges should be considered alongside what he described as far-reaching structural changes undertaken by the administration since May 2023.
According to him, the removal of the petrol subsidy and the reform of the foreign exchange regime were among the most consequential decisions of the administration.
He said the reforms had altered the economic framework within which government, businesses and investors operate, although their long-term benefits would depend on sustained implementation.
The International Monetary Fund similarly said in its 2026 Article IV assessment that reforms since 2023, including the ending of fuel subsidies and deficit monetisation, tighter monetary policy and exchange-rate liberalisation, had strengthened macroeconomic stability, rebuilt external buffers and improved foreign-exchange market functioning.
The IMF, however, also noted that conditions remained difficult for many Nigerians, with poverty and food insecurity posing significant challenges.
Subsidy removal, FX reforms
Bello argued that the decision to remove the petrol subsidy and move away from the previous multiple-exchange-rate structure represented a major break with longstanding economic practices.
He acknowledged that both decisions produced immediate economic hardship, but maintained that their significance should also be assessed in terms of fiscal management, investor confidence and the ability of government to maintain consistent policies.
The IMF reported that Nigeria’s gross international reserves rose to $46bn at the end of 2025 from $40bn at the end of 2024, while net international reserves increased from $23bn to $35bn over the same period. It also said Nigeria had regained access to international capital markets.
Bello said policy consistency was itself an economic asset because investors committing substantial capital to Nigeria needed greater certainty about the rules governing their investments.
He argued that maintaining difficult reforms despite political pressure could help strengthen confidence in the Nigerian investment environment.
Dangote Refinery as industrial test case
The writer cited the Dangote Petroleum Refinery as an illustration of the potential link between economic reform and industrial development, while stressing that the refinery was conceived, financed and constructed over several years, including before Tinubu assumed office.
He therefore cautioned against attributing the construction of the refinery to the present administration.
Rather, he argued that the reforms had helped create a market environment in which large-scale domestic refining could operate without depending on the economics of a heavily subsidised petroleum market.
The Dangote refinery is currently operating at full capacity, according to Reuters, and its owners are seeking to raise about ₦2.15tn through an initial public offering involving 4.1 billion shares. Reuters described the transaction as Africa’s largest IPO and reported that the refinery was valued at about $47.6bn.
Bello said the development demonstrated how industrial investment could evolve beyond physical production into broader capital formation by allowing retail and institutional investors to acquire stakes in major industrial enterprises.
Jobs, supply chains and the middle class
According to him, the economic significance of large industrial projects extends beyond direct employment.
He said major factories require engineers, technicians, logistics operators, banks, insurers, maintenance companies, manufacturers, distributors, professional services and other businesses, creating wider supply chains around industrial investments.
Bello argued that such economic ecosystems could contribute to the emergence of a stronger Nigerian middle class.
He said sustained employment would provide households with incomes that could support spending on housing, education, healthcare, transportation and other services, thereby generating demand for additional businesses.
He described this as the transmission mechanism through which macroeconomic reforms could eventually affect ordinary Nigerians.
Infrastructure investment
The analysis also highlighted the administration’s infrastructure programme, particularly major road projects.
The Presidency said in May that more than 2,700 kilometres of highways and major roads were under construction, reconstruction or rehabilitation, including the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, Sokoto-Badagry Super Highway, Abuja-Kaduna-Zaria-Kano corridor and East-West Road.
Bello argued that such projects should be viewed not merely as construction activities but as potential economic corridors capable of connecting agricultural areas, industrial centres, ports and markets.
He said improved transportation could reduce logistics costs, facilitate the movement of agricultural produce and manufactured goods and encourage new businesses along major transport routes.
He also pointed to investments in ports, railways, aviation and urban transportation as components of what he described as an attempt to create a more interconnected national economic geography.
Electricity reform
Bello identified the Electricity Act 2023 as another significant component of the reform agenda.
He argued that the legislation could encourage greater participation by states and private investors in electricity generation and distribution, with potential implications for industries, technology companies, hospitals, agricultural processors and small businesses.
According to him, reliable electricity would remain critical to reducing production costs and improving the competitiveness of Nigerian enterprises.
Education, credit and skills
The analysis also highlighted the Nigeria Education Loan Fund, TETFund, the Universal Basic Education Commission and the 3 Million Technical Talent programme as elements of a broader human-capital strategy.
Bello said access to tertiary education financing should be regarded as an investment in the workforce needed to support an industrial economy.
He also cited the Nigerian Consumer Credit Corporation, arguing that the development of a functional credit system could expand access to financing for households and businesses.
He said government guarantees could help financial institutions lend by reducing some of the risks associated with credit.
Minimum wage and social protection
Bello further cited the increase in the national minimum wage from ₦30,000 to ₦70,000 as part of the administration’s response to economic pressures.
He acknowledged that the increase alone could not resolve the cost-of-living crisis, but described it as a significant rise in the statutory wage floor.
He also referenced government cash-transfer and other social-protection programmes, arguing that economic reforms needed mechanisms to cushion vulnerable households during periods of adjustment.
The IMF has similarly stressed the need to protect priority and social spending while maintaining macroeconomic stability, particularly because poverty and food insecurity remain significant concerns.
Agriculture, mining and regional development
On agriculture, Bello argued that Nigeria’s objective should go beyond increasing the production of raw commodities.
He advocated a value chain linking farming with processing, manufacturing, packaging, distribution and exports.
He said the same principle should apply to the mining sector, arguing that Nigeria needed to move from the extraction of minerals to processing and the production of industrial inputs and finished goods.
The writer also highlighted regional development institutions, arguing that Nigeria’s geopolitical zones possess different economic strengths that could be organised around specific development strategies.
He cited agriculture and livestock in the North-West, manufacturing and commerce in the South-West, entrepreneurship and manufacturing in the South-East, energy and maritime resources in the South-South, and agricultural, mineral and reconstruction opportunities in the North-East.
Digital identity and security
Bello also identified the expansion of the National Identification Number system as economic infrastructure, arguing that reliable identity systems could support banking, credit, taxation, social protection and financial inclusion.
He further described security as a prerequisite for economic development, noting that farmers, manufacturers and investors require a secure environment to operate and commit long-term capital.
He cautioned, however, that claims concerning the number of terrorists or criminals eliminated or surrendered should be attributed to the relevant security authorities rather than treated as independently verified figures.
The ultimate test
Bello said the administration should ultimately be judged not only by changes in petrol prices, the exchange rate or government revenue, but also by whether the reforms eventually produce tangible improvements in the lives of Nigerians.
He listed productive jobs, higher real incomes, competitive Nigerian businesses, lower production costs, increased manufacturing, stronger exports, affordable credit, reliable electricity, improved infrastructure and greater food production among the indicators that would determine the long-term success of the reforms.
He argued that removing subsidies or liberalising the exchange rate could not, by themselves, produce prosperity.
Rather, he said, the reforms needed to create an environment in which private investment could expand production and employment.
“The reforms are not the destination,” Bello argued, stressing that they should instead serve as a platform for investment, production, employment and rising household incomes.
The IMF’s 2026 assessment also struck a similar cautionary note, saying that reforms had strengthened macroeconomic outcomes and resilience but that substantial challenges remained, including inflation, poverty, food insecurity, constrained fiscal space and infrastructure gaps.
Bello therefore described the central economic question as whether the reforms could establish a sustainable chain running from macroeconomic stability to investor confidence, private capital, industrial production, jobs, household income and ultimately a broader middle class.
He concluded that the strongest defence of the administration was not that Nigeria had already achieved widespread prosperity, but that it had attempted to alter what he described as some of the country’s longstanding economic distortions.
He said the ultimate measure would be whether those reforms were sustained and translated into productive investment, employment and improved living standards for Nigerians.
The Amb. Raffy Bello Otun Asiwaju Onigbagbo Ijebuland
